[jasonpeterson]

This is an email I received trying to explain ammo shortage.

FAST FACTS . . .

ANSWERS TO AMMUNITION AVAILABILITY QUESTIONS

NSSF has received numerous calls regarding shortages of ammunition. Many of these callers have expressed concern that the supply of ammunition is not able to keep up with the current demand.

In order to provide the best information possible on the issue of ammunition availability, NSSF interviewed ammunition manufacturers across the United States. Here's what we have learned:

Is there truly a shortage of ammunition?

The shortage of ammunition is real and is caused by several factors including:

A significant spike in consumer demand

Law Enforcement demand for training and readiness

Department of Defense demand for training and readiness

Higher prices from commodities

What calibers are in the highest demand?

The high demand for ammunition extends across caliber lines. The increase can be seen in most handgun, rifle and rimfire ammunition and on certain shot shell products such as buckshot.

What are manufacturers doing to keep up with demand?

In order to help keep up with demand for ammunition, manufacturers are working at full capacity (24/7). It is believed that any ammunition shortage is likely a temporary issue; however, it will take time for supply to catch up with demand.

How long will it take for supply to catch up with demand?

While it is believed that supply will be increasing, the great unknown is what demand will be later in the year. Since there is no way for manufacturers to predict how long consumer demand will be sustained at its current, unprecedented level, it is impossible for manufacturers to forecast the timeline for when the current backlog will begin to improve.

 

[J.Boyette]

Why did they interview anyone?

I could of told you all of this off the top of my head!!!!

The thing is, CCI makes about 1 Million 22lr rounds a week out of one factory. Well thats 52 Million a year and we have a short fall of 22lr?

I do not buy all of this myself.

I think there are other issues at hand here.

John

 

[jasonpeterson]

I agree totally!

 

[Jamesb74]

Please forgive my ignorance but who is NSSF?
And what shortfall of 22lr is there? It is the only thing that can be found on a continuos basis. It might not be CCI but there are plenty of others.I have been buying a 500rd brick a week with no problems.

 

[jasonpeterson]

It's hard to find around here. I make wally world runs a couple times a week. All my suppliers have been out for the last month.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation

 

[Jamesb74]

Thank you for the info.
Let me know if you want been finding decent supplies around here for somewhat reasonable prices on the good stuff. Best is still at the gun show. Finding plated Winchester and CCI plus other's

 

[jasonpeterson]

I bought some 333 packs at walmart last week. They are only getting small shipments in at a time. I might have to start bartering with all yall from out west.

 

[-k-]

I do not buy all of this myself.

I think there are other issues at hand here. John

Are you looking to buy your "normal" amount of ammo or has the current shortage made you think about stocking up?

I think there are huge numbers of people that fall into the second category and that is fueling the shortage.

Everybody I know who is looking to buy a brick of .22LR to go plink has to go to several stores to find it. When they find it they buy two or three or more, because next time they want to go shoot they may not be able to buy it anywhere.

 

[Jack-O]

Why did they interview anyone?

I could of told you all of this off the top of my head!!!!

The thing is, CCI makes about 1 Million 22lr rounds a week out of one factory. Well thats 52 Million a year and we have a short fall of 22lr?

I do not buy all of this myself.

I think there are other issues at hand here.

John

Allow me to help you with some math

there are 3400 walmarts in the US (we'll only do walmarts in this problem, but you can feel free to add in sportsmans warehouse, ammo dealers, Kmarts, cabelas, monarch, scheels, bob wards, and any other number of area and local sportings goods stores ON TOP OF WALMART, as you wish :wink: )

If we figure that each walmart gets ONLY 1 case of 5000 rounds of 22lr per week, that comes to 17 MILLION ROUNDS. That's just for walmart. :|

now all you need is 10 customers to buy a brick of 22 at each store.

Not a real stretch to understand the real dynamics of supply and demand is it?

OR

you can believe that there is a conspiracy.

either way, it's real hard to get 22 in most areas of the country.

 

[jasonpeterson]

I practice for steel matches with my 22s. So I always had a couple thousand on hand. Now I can get a couple boxes every now and then. When someone finds them in stock they buy everything they have. I think when everyone gets a little stash they will become more available. The match high dollar ammo is readily available. I'm sure different parts of the country have different supply and demand levels.

 

[Empty Brass]

Higher prices from commodities

I'm claiming BS on this. Prices are lower now then they were a year ago. About 50% lower.

http://www.metalprices.com/

The main reason is everyone is stockpiling. I've said it before once the manufacturers catch up and everyone has their fill there will be a huge surplus and no one buying.

 

[fireguy]

Circa 1993-1994, my father and I bought up a bunch of ammo just as the Great Clinton Gun Scare was coming on. He held on to it, and we shot sparingly for a little while until it became clear that the sky was not going to fall. I think about that a lot lately.

15 years later, I have to admire the foresight my dad had. I've got his ammo stash now, and sometimes it's the only place I can find ammo when the local bowling pin population gets rowdy and needs thinning out. I'm careful to be sparing in using up this scarce inheritance, but I'm also pretty sure that the US ammo industry is doing well enough in these economic times that I will be able to rebuild that stash once prices come down again. I agree that everybody's been doing what we did, and once that back corner of people's sheds or closets are stocked we'll see demand (and prices) fall back to reasonable levels. That'll be the time to really build the ammo stockpile!

SHTF scenarios are of course good reasons to stockpile ammo (and toilet paper too), but a more likely reason is times like these. Life is good when you can buy low, shoot high

Now if only 6.8 had been around back then...I wouldn't be haunting SSA's site looking for the plinking ammo to come out!

 

[Jack-O]

when you can buy low, shoot high

Now thats worthy of a signature line right there.

Couple of my opinions and prognostications based upon my current understanding of the market and political environment.

[Rant on/]
-metals prices are not affecting ammo prices right now. simply there is just no reason for manufacturers to lower prices because demand is so high. I've had manufacturers tell me this as an excuse, but the facts tell us different.

-we are moving towards massive inflation by the end of the year or early next (when the construction and tourism seasons are mostly over round about jan-feb most likely)

-we are also going to be fed a regional or global currency which "has the potential" to stabilize things for us all financially if not politically.

-there will be massive backlash from the individual states and citizen in response to the above

-dems will solidify control of the senate in 2010 (63-37) but will lose slightly in the house. basically status quo, until conservatives bail on the repubs and move to another party.

-Obammy will win in 2012, THEN he will turn the heat up on us. This term is simply a preparation for the real smackdown coming.

-the current depression will be made worse by further attempts to push the global warming/anti capitalist agenda. the depression will continue until this country is fractured into it's regional and ideological pieces (new england, eastern central states, gulf states, texas and it's borders, mountain north west and dakotas, south west, california, central states)

-ammunition is and will be more and more recognized as a commodity unto itself. It may become a currency of sorts to many people.

- the federal government will become increasing unable or unwilling to fulfill it's obligations to the people, and they in turn will readjust thier loyalties to thier states or local governments.

-those with large amounts of cash in banks or under a mattress, should turn it into a commodity of some sort. Silver, gold and ammo are very good choices. personally silver seems like the best choice to me right now

What does all of this mean?

Ammunition will continue to be scarce as these things become increasingly apparent to people. If you look at the shelves at your local sporting goods stores you will see plenty of off calibers and top shelf hunting ammo. People are not buying hunting ammo they are buying killing ammo. they are scared and they are arming up to fight, NOT hunt.

The rule from here on out until we regain control of our country (and I dont just vote a republican back in either), is that if you need something, you MUST buy what you can while you can, for whatever price they are asking, or do without. Plain and simple. It sucks, but deal with it now or pay for it later.

Sorry to seem tin-foilish on this guys, but thats what I see coming, and I am rarely off by a long ways on my predictions.

[Rant off\]

 

[diving dave]

Well, I'm not so sure about the law enforcement agencies stocking up...The range unit at my dept. is only open for qualifications, no practice shooting for the next 3 months. The reason-lack of ammo.

 

[stanc]

Sorry to seem tin-foilish on this guys, but thats what I see coming, and I am rarely off by a long ways on my predictions.

Hmm... So we can know how much credence to place in your foresight, can you cite past predictions of yours that came true?

 

[Jack-O]

All things considering I would say that you are 50/50
You can ask my wife as she has very little interest in guns or this forum and she can tell you in 2004 when Obama spoke at the democrat national convention I listened to him for 5 minutes and my reaction was "this guy will run for president and will make it" Full blown lucky guess but based off of what Bush was doing and Obama's rhetoric then was less than what it is now and more moderate.Didn't think it would be the next presidential election but that he would make it.

It has been said by others and by my own predictions that there will be a major attack on the U.S. again. If the G.D. was still here I could pull up the links. Hell Biden predicted a attack during the election.
But not to discredit you I think you are accurate but there is still a large factor in there that none of us can determine.

China will have a majorimpacton the global commodities and it won't effect ammo only. Russia will be in there also.

Now look what you did now I am going to get banned again and have to wear the maid outfit and that is not FUN. :shock: :shock:

yeah, 50% is about right. i dont get em all perfectly right, but i usually aint too far off tho either.

There is definitely a lot of other things going on and it changes to meet new challenges, so no-one can say for sure what will happen. Hopefully that "large factor" of which you speak is the American people. WE can change whats slated to happen if we dont put up with thier crapola.

Things like the tea parties are a great way to meet like minded people, but dont think for a second that they will effect policy one little bit. Mark my words, the day you get 1000 people walking down main street WITH RIFLES, you will get someones attention, and they will listen VERY attentively and VERY politely to what you have to say. THEN you will have started to change course of things. ;D